Scouting the Top Four Options to Replace Keylor Navas at Real Madrid

Given Keylor Navas’ unexpected decline in form, Real Madrid’s President, Florentino Perez, will likely be on the lookout for a new keeper next season. Who will Madrid pursue to replace Keylor Navas? Alex McVey looks at four potential options. 

After a messy almost-transfer out of Real Madrid that was cancelled at the last minute due to supposed “technical difficulties” involving the infamous transfer fax-machine, Keylor Navas stayed in Madrid and became one of the team’s stalwarts.

Making last-ditch saves reminiscent of Iker Casillas and stopping a number of clutch penalties, Navas has been a reliable presence over the course of the past two seasons in an otherwise-shaky defensive setup for Madrid.

This season, however, Navas has had a much harder time. Missing a big chunk of the opening part of the season recovering from surgery, Navas has suffered a precipitous decline in form, going from one of the best clean-sheet keepers in the world to being barely able to keep a clean sheet at all.

It seems an inevitability that Madrid will be in the market for a new keeper this summer. Who will they get to replace Keylor Navas? Let’s look at four possible options.

David de Gea

The most likely scenario is that Real Madrid will go after Manchester United’s keeper David de Gea. De Gea, called the “future” of the Spanish National team by Cesc Fabregas, is likely to appeal to the Madrid board and the Madrid faithful, who have long valued the presence of Spanish players in Madrid’s squad.

Perez has been said to have been after the signature of the Spanish keeper for a number of years, and having been somewhat embarrassed by the failure to sign De Gea before the implementation of the transfer ban, Perez might be committed to landing De Gea this summer.

Strengths:

De Gea checks off a number of boxes for Real Madrid. First, he is Spanish, something that will endear him to the Bernabéu. Second, he is widely recognized as one of the best goalkeepers in the world, bringing with him the name recognition that often comes with Madrid’s pursuit of Galacticos.

Finally, there are his on the pitch contributions. He is an excellent shot-stopper, with cat-like reflexes. Over the course of his time at Manchester United, he has made a number of excellent, and extremely difficult saves. As Seb Stafford-Bloor of FourFourTwo writes, “From the moment he was elevated into professional football, de Gea has regularly demonstrated his staggering agility and freakish reach.”

Much like his compatriot Iker Casillas, de Gea is known for being an unconventional keeper who is as likely to stop with his feet as he is with his hands. This propensity to come up with clutch, if not necessarily aesthetically pleasing, stops makes de Gea a likely candidate to ultimately inherit the spot once held down by Casillas for nearly a decade.

Bailing out a leaky defense by making last-ditch stops against shots that no keeper on earth could be blamed for letting in would make him especially suited for Real Madrid. Such a keeper could come in handy to cover for full backs who bomb forward at the expense of their defensive duties and center backs like Sergio Ramos, prone – nay, obliged – to make at least a few stupid mistakes a season to balance out his utter brilliance.

Still not convinced? Check out this video of his best stops:

Weaknesses:

When he first came to Manchester United, de Gea was criticized for his lack of fitness and his general inability to successfully defend against crosses. His somewhat lanky frame can make him seem like a less-than imposing presence in the box.

If Madrid are looking for a commanding keeper with a strong aerial presence capable of dominating the box and punching away whatever cross comes at them, de Gea may not be the best option.

However, de Gea has done much to improve these aspects of his game. After being criticized for showing up out-of-shape to Manchester United and being too weak to deal with the physicality of the Premier League, de Gea hit the gym, building up his mass and body-strength, something that has paid dividends to his skills as a keeper.

In addition to his physical improvements, de Gea has also worked on his ball-claiming skills, as discussed in detail in a great article by Bill Reno. Reno argues that while de Gea still is not the best at claiming crosses, he has become much more intelligent about deciding which balls to go after, tasking his defenders with claiming balls that he cannot catch, and catching balls instead of punching them out:

"Essentially, he’s staying on his line and leaving crosses to his defenders, especially the balls he can’t hold.One could argue that a truly great goalkeeper is not so passive, that de Gea should actively dominate his box. But with de Gea’s slender build, only 185 pounds at 6’4”, it’s a wise decision to play to his strengths."

Nevertheless, de Gea still has some work to do on his body-positioning and technique. As Reno writes, de Gea’s “overly cumbersome technique” often “mimics a jack-in-the-box,” causing de Gea to sprawl when he makes his reflex-intensive saves, leaving his body out of control. Thus, while de Gea is great at making last-ditch stops, these can often seem more like an exercise in desperation rather than one in mastery of the box.

Desirability (1-10):

8 – Given that the Spanish icon has a ton to offer Madrid, is still relatively young (26 years), and has worked to improve those aspects of his game that previously plagued him, I rate the desirability of this transfer as an 8 out of 10. De Gea would be an excellent replacement for Keylor Navas, if Madrid can finally get their fax-machine in order.

Likelihood (1-10):

10 – I think this transfer is nearly certain to go through. Marca have reported that Real Madrid are launching “Operation De Gea 2,” and are hell-bent on signing the Spanish keeper this summer. Perez is not one to be denied a flashy transfer, so he will probably be looking to finally catch the one that got away, and put de Gea’s name to paper sooner rather than later. Given de Gea’s Spanish pedigree and big-name status, it only makes sense that he will be commanding Real Madrid’s goal next season.

Thibaut Courtois

Perhaps the second-most likely choice for Navas’ replacement lies in Chelsea’s Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois. Madrid fans may be haunted by memories of Courtois from his time at cross-town rivals Atletico Madrid, where he was named Man of the Match in Atleti’s victory over Real in the 2013 Copa Del Rey Final.

Courtois went on to guide Atletico Madrid to a league championship the following season (2013-2014), claiming the Ricardo Zamora Trophy for the lowest goals-to-game ratio in back to back seasons.

Contract extension talks between Courtois and his London club have reportedly been put on hold, sparking further rumors that Courtois might be Madrid-bound in the summer. There are rumors afoot that Chelsea are looking to replace their want-away striker Diego Costa with Madrid’s Alvaro Morata, and might be open to a swap.

Real Madrid aren’t the only ones infatuated with Courtois, as he has also recently become the titular subject of a Belgian pop-song:

Strengths:

Real Madrid could enjoy a number of benefits from signing Courtois to replace Navas. First, there is his age. At only 24 years of age, Courtois is still very young for a keeper, and has a lot of time left operating at the highest levels of football.

However, his relatively young age does not demonstrate a lack of experience, as Courtois already has a substantial CV, having played in domestic cup finals, Champions League finals, and having won league titles both in La Liga and the EPL. Real Madrid would gain a keeper who has been winning trophies at the highest levels for years, and stands to continue to do so for the better part of the next decade.

Courtois is a shot-stopping machine who also has no problem physically commanding his area. At 6’6’’, he comes in at nearly two inches taller than David de Gea, an inch taller than Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and just an inch shorter than walking man-mountain Peter Crouch.

When you add an enormous wing span and a composed demeanor, that makes Courtois, in the words of We Aint Got No History’s Graham MacAree, “probably the best in the world at cutting off crosses.”

Rob Swan describes Courtois as “calmness personified,” writing that the keeper “oozes calmness and his defenders know they can trust him 100 per cent to make the right decisions.” Real Madrid could certainly use a level-head at the back to balance out the passionate but rarely-calm forces in their back line like Sergio Ramos.

Weaknesses:

Courtois has certainly produced some impressive clean sheet figures, but it should be remembered that he has always thrived in systems that were already prone to stifle opponents’ offensive production like Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid or Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea. There are serious questions whether he would be able to reproduce his success with Madrid’s less-than-stable backline.

At the age of 24, Courtois is still learning how to lead from the back. He suffers from occasional problems with communication, and while being able to physically command his penalty era, he often is less successful at organizing the defensive players within it.

It was a communicative breakdown in the back line which cost Courtois’ Belgium in their loss against Italy. Additionally, Mourinho once cited Petr Cech’s “mental focus” and ability “to communicate to the team” in his decision to bench Courtois in a crucial league match against Everton.

FanSided

Typically, this doesn’t matter, as Courtois can compensate for his communicative flaws with sheer physical prowess, imposing himself on the box in lieu of organizing the defense. Additionally, Courtois has usually been able to delegate the duties of organizing the back line to vocal center back leaders like Diego Godin, or John Terry.

However, in less organized systems, such as Chelsea’s leaky setup under Antonio Conte before switching to their now-rampant 3-at-the-back system, Courtois is prone to getting pulled out of position. We can observe this flaw in the highlights from Arsenal’s 3-0 thrashing that precipitated Conte’s tactical switch.

Another weakness that has previously been identified in Courtois’ game is his distribution. An excellent article from goalkeeping analysis blog View From the Crossbar (herein, VFTCB) argues Courois’ biggest weakness is his distribution, especially when playing the ball from the ground:

"But if [Bayern Munich’s Manuel] Neuer’s accuracy with the ball on the deck is what sets him apart then for Thibaut Courtois it is his Achilles heel. For all Courtois’s dominance in the air and shot stopping ability he’s never been truly comfortable with distribution. In particular from his feet."

Comparing Courtois’ distribution to that of other top EPL keepers at the time (October 2014), VFTCB (using the Squawka Player Comparison Matrix), found that Courtois’ had, on average, a much longer average length of pass (43.89 m), and a lower pass completion accuracy (60%).

From this data, VFTCB concludes that either, A: “Courtois has been told to miss out the Chelsea back four when distributing the ball and aim primarily for the midfield,” or, B: “Mourinho doesn’t have confidence in Courtois’s ability to go short.”

Another good thing about Courtois being young is that he is still learning and improving all the time. And it seems as if his play with his feet is one area that he’s been seeking to improve. In an interview with Sky Sports’ Adam Bate, Courtois discusses how he worked on improving his footwork as he identified it as an area of his game that needs improvement: “My footwork was something I had to improve and I’ve focused on that. In every aspect you have to look for perfection.”

In the same interview, Courtois points out how working in Conte’s 3-at-the-back system has forced him to improve his passing at his feet: “I’ve played a lot with the team and my passing is now much better… I’m more confident and I’m trying to play. It helps as they play fast so you have to adapt to their rhythm. Then you get better with your feet as well.” It looks like his footwork is indeed improving, given the fancy tricks he’s pulling on Diego Costa in training (see tweet below).

Courtois’ focused effort at improving his footwork and distribution is paying dividends. Compare, for example, his distribution figures above to the ones in the below chart comparing all of the keepers in this article, also generated from Squawka:

Courtois’ average pass length this season has gone way down, and his accuracy has gone way up. If these are the metrics by which VFTCB concludes that Courtois’ needs to work on his distribution at the feet, then it’s safe to say he’s been heeding that advice.

Desirability (1-10):

10 –  If I had my way, Real Madrid would go all-in on Thibaut Courtois. He is a young, intelligent, composed player with title-winning experience whose skills are evenly balanced between shot-stopping and commanding the box. If he can continue to improve on his communication, organization, distribution, and footwork, Courtois could be one of, if not the best goalkeeper in the world for the next five to ten years.

Likelihood (1-10):

8 – If Real Madrid cannot land their white whale in de Gea, they will almost certainly make Courtois their next target. Some British tabloids like The Sun claim that Real Madrid have already made signing Courtois their top priority over the likes of de Gea, and that Courtois is “already planning his summer move to Real Madrid.”

I am highly skeptical of this claim. Overtures in the press such as these always recur whenever contract talks are delayed. I believe that Perez is more likely to go for the Spanish starlet, although if that falls through, expect Courtois to be next on Perez’ list.

Hugo Lloris

Speaking of British tabloid rag The Sun, the “newspaper” also claims that Real Madrid will be going after Hugo Lloris if deals for de Gea and Courtois both fall through.

While Lloris rarely seems to get placed in the “Best in the World” category with the likes of Buffon, Neuer, Courtois, and de Gea, he is frequently considered in the “One of the Best” category just below it, frequently making the lists of top goalkeepers in the EPL and the top ten in the world.

Strengths:

Lloris has deputized well for Tottenham over the years, playing in a modern “sweeper-keeper” role under Andre Villas-Boas that has only been solidified by the tactical instructions of Mauricio Pochettino. Lloris has assumed the Captain’s arm-band at Tottenham, stepping up as a leader in the locker-room who, according to Paul Doyle at The Guardian, typically commands his team through quiet composure, but is not afraid to yell at his teammates when they lose the plot.

Lloris’ keeping style is marked by heightened intelligence and strong positional awareness which augment his already impressive shot-stopping skills. Dominique Baratelli, a French goalkeeping coach who scouted Lloris at an early age, says that Lloris’ intelligence in positioning and knowing when to leave the box has always been a hallmark of the French keeper, even as a young boy:

"What struck me most strongly and immediately were his anticipation and his reading of the game. He made extraordinary saves, of course, but most of all he took intelligent initiatives. He had an innate understanding of when to come off his line and even sometimes out of his box to join in play like an outfielder… I’ve never seen a 12-year-old do it as well as Hugo did. He was directing teams from the back even then."

Additionally, Lloris’ has developed a strong set of dynamic distribution skills, something that he has been criticized for in the past, but has worked to cultivate under Pochettino’s system.

Intelligent positioning is something Real Madrid have been lacking at the back this season, with a number of goals coming from Keylor Navas’ finding himself caught out at inopportune moments. That combined with Lloris’ quiet leadership skills could make him a solid contribution to Madrid’s squad.

Weaknesses:

The biggest downside to Hugo Lloris is his age. At 30 years of age, Lloris is entering into the prime of his career. It’s always difficult to tell whether keepers will age more like Iker Casillas, who saw a sudden and unexpected decline, or like Gianluigi Buffon, who, like a fine Italian wine, seems to only get better with age.

Either way, Madrid would be taking a gamble on Lloris’ age, and would likely be signing just another stop-gap rather than a long-term replacement that they can build a dynasty around in the mold of San Iker.

Another area of weakness for Lloris is his aerial game. He has been called merely “average” at dealing with aerial threats, which may come as no surprise given his slightly shorter stature for a keeper, coming in at just 6’2’’.

However, to his credit, this is an element of his game that he has been working on improving with some degree of success. As Ian Herbert of The Independent writes, “It is the development of Lloris’ aerial game – not always a strong point for him – which has most impressed French football analysts who have observed him down the years.”

Desirability (1-10):

5 – I give Lloris’ a lower ranking here not because he is a bad keeper, but simply because he is not as good as an option as de Gea or Courtois. While Lloris’ currently deserves to be in the conversation about best keepers in the world, it is unlikely that he will remain in that conversation for as long as Madrid’s other options. Lloris would be fine as a short-term replacement for Navas, but Madrid should be looking for a long-term solution to their problems at the back.

Likelihood (1-10):

4 – Again, the low ranking on likelihood here is mostly due to the fact that Madrid are, in all probability, going to book one of the first two targets on their list before ever having to move on to a consideration of Lloris.

It’s perhaps no surprise that the keeper is linked to Zidane’s team, as Lloris’ leadership on the French national team may have endeared him to Zidane. Yet given that Lloris still belongs in the “one of the best” conversation rather than “the best”, I imagine Perez will likely try to go in a more Galactico-esque direction when the decision is made to bring in a new keeper this summer.

Gianluigi Donnarumma

Another intriguing long-shot possibility for a Navas’ replacement is AC Milan’s prodigy shot-stopper Gianluigi Donnarumma. At the young age of 18, Donnarumma is considered to be the heir to Buffon’s throne as the keeper for the Italian national team, having made his international debut for the senior squad at a record-breaking 17 years of age.

The youth product is so impressive, that he was called “the future of Milan and of Italian football,” by no less than the man who he was benching at Milan, former Real Madrid goalkeeper Diego Lopez.  Game recognize game, I guess.

Our friends at Marca have reported that Donnarumma is on Madrid’s radar as one possible option of moves for Courtois or De Gea fail to go through this summer.

Strengths:

One of the primary advantages of signing Donnarumma would be his age. At just 18 years of age, Donnarumma is already considered one of the top goalkeeping prospects in the world. Already capable of benching Lopez at Milan, Donnarumma is likely only going to improve with experience. If Madrid wanted to sign a young keeper who, like Iker Casillas, they could build a team around for the next decade or more, Donnarumma would be a strong option.

In addition to his huge upside potential for improvement, Donnarumma is already building on a strong foundation of goalkeeping skills. He is tall, coming in at 6’5’’, and uses his large frame to physically intimidate opponents. Miles Olusina, in an excellent article from Outside the Boot, writes:

"With his huge stature come a plethora of advantages that he exploits to the fullest. For many strikers, seeing the towering figure of Donnarumma rushing towards them tends to put them in a state of apprehension and often leads to an inability to fashion an effective one-on-one opportunity when up against him between the posts."

Despite his massive size, Olusina argues, Donnarumma is still agile and quick-thinking, frequently coming out of his box to claim chances and rushing forward to deal with one-on-one situations with a calm and composure not usually seen by keepers so young.

Weaknesses:

Donnarumma’s greatest advantage is also his greatest disadvantage; signing a keeper at the age of 18 would be an enormous gamble for Real Madrid. While in theory it sounds nice to lock down a goalkeeping prospect who may come good for the better part of the next ten years, that also comes with considerable risk.

What if he is plagued by injury? What if he never develops further, or worse, even regresses? I would feel much more comfortable making this move 2 or 3 years from now, but it seems too early in the young shot-stopper’s career to pull the trigger at this point in time.

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It only took me a few minutes of watching highlights of Donnarumma’s saves to recognize one of his biggest weaknesses: he is not very good at catching the ball. He has an amazing set of reflexes, and is really good at punching crosses away, but seems utterly incapable of holding onto balls that he should have no problem being able to catch.

This creates an added danger for goals off of rebounds. As Olusina notes, Donnarumma displays similar tendencies to those of de Gea when he first came to Manchester United, but that this often is something keepers can improve on with time and experience, as de Gea himself has proven at United.

Another area of play that Donnarumma needs to improve is distributing the ball from the back and playing balls at his feet. As Sam Lopresti from Bleacher Report writes, “[Donnarumma] desperately needs to improve his distribution.  Too often he holds balls at his feet too long, allowing himself to be pressured into inaccurate heaves up the field.” Donnarumma is obviously impressive, but his game needs a few more years before he can be judged to truly be a goalkeeping great.

Desirability (1-10):

3 – While Real Madrid’s big gambles on young players have paid off in recent years (Casemiro and Carvajal come to mind), the goalkeeper is a place where Madrid needs immediate proven quality and instant stability rather than a long-term prospect that may end up paying off big time. Donnarumma is a fantastic player, but Madrid is not where he should go to develop his skills. If Madrid end up going for an older player like Lloris this summer, we should keep Donnarumma on the radar for a few years down the line.

Likelihood (1-10):

2 – I rate the probability of this transfer as very low. Real Madrid’s caboose may have gotten hitched to the Donnarumma hype train, but we should probably get off at the next station. I would recommend against mistaking wild speculations about the hot-new thing for actual transfer possibilities.

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If Donnarumma is going anywhere soon, it will likely be to Juventus, who have also been linked to the young keeper and have a habit of buying up the top talent in Serie A. That would also make sense as it would allow Donnarumma to serve as both a metaphorical and literal understudy to Buffon, the man he will likely be replacing at the helm of the Italian national team.