Real Madrid fans, in general, don’t take it well when Madrid drops points. So when Real Madrid drew 2-2 against Valencia in their home opener this past weekend, Madridistas everywhere went into full-on crisis mode. But it’s not all cause for commotion. Alex McVey gives you three reasons why Real Madrid fans shouldn’t freak out about the Valencia draw… yet.
Yes, Real Madrid had to settle for a single measly point against Valencia. Yes, Karim Benzema made an absolute mess of it by missing chance-after-chance that could have put Madrid up. Nevertheless, there are still plenty of positives to take from this match. Here are three positives from Real Madrid’s draw.
1. Real Madrid’s underlying statistics were good
Madrid’s underlying chance creation statistics (obtained from understat.com) from this match were top notch.
Real Madrid created 3.35 xG, and contained Valencia to just .8 xG. That makes for an xG difference of +2.46 for Real Madrid. If this match were played again, chances say Real Madrid would be able to pull off the victory.
Not only were Real Madrid making enough chances that they may have reasonably expected 3 goals, but they were able to hold Valencia to under a single xG, despite having a makeshift back-line with Casemiro deputizing at center-back.
It’s true, Real Madrid started this match off flat. As the xG timeline above shows, Real Madrid were thoroughly outplayed in the first half. Save Asensio’s improbable wonderstrike, Madrid didn’t do much until right before the end of the first half.
But then, as is characteristic of Zinedine Zidane’s Madrid, the last 30 minutes saw a barrage of attack from the men in white. Real Madrid were not lagging behind in the creation of quality shots.
Real Madrid had all the tools they needed to win this match. This match was not a catastrophe, and doesn’t signal some deeper flaw in Zidane’s schema. If a few things go slightly different for Real Madrid, we’re talking about a much better result.
2. Benzema won’t be that bad again, and Ronaldo will be back soon.
It’s true that Karim Benzema had a howler of a match. One need look no further than a comparison between his xG and Marco Asensio’s to see just how bad of a game Benzema had.
Benzema underperformed his xG by 2.7 goals. In other words, Benzema made enough chances in quality areas to have scored nearly three goals. The shots were coming in for Benzema in dangerous positions, but he was simply not putting the ball in the back of the net.
Benzema often gets criticized for his finishing ability, or lack thereof. But today was an aberration. Benzema is not the best finisher in world football, but he’s far from a poor finisher. As Tommy K from Managing Madrid demonstrates, Benzema’s finishing skills are in line with many of the top strikers in the world. He may not be as good at converting chances as say, Luis Suarez, or Robert Lewandowski, but he is nevertheless amongst the top strikers in the world in terms of his goal conversion from xG ratio.
In the context of the Valencia match, that means that Benzema’s string of calamitous misses were a statistical anomaly, even for Benzema’s standards. If, as demonstrated above, Benzema normally converts goals at a rate near his xG, for him to miss his xG mark by 2.7 is a total aberration.
Not only will Benzema not be that bad again, but he also won’t be required to do the finishing work by himself next time. Cristiano Ronaldo will be back soon enough, after serving his five match suspension for pushing a referee in the Spanish Super Cup. Benzema and Ronaldo always seem to play better together. It’s hard to imagine the 2-2 result going the same way if The Dark Invader were on the pitch.
3. The youth are the future
Two of Real Madrid’s younger players stood out for their performances against Valencia: Mateo Kovacic and Marco Asensio. The performances of these two players show that Real Madrid fans have one giant reason for optimism: Real Madrid’s young players will continue to shine for years to come.
Marco Asensio’s game was basically the opposite of Karim Benzema’s from a statistical perspective. Looking again at the same chart from above:
If Benzema made a whole lot of nothing out of some great chances, Marco Asensio made some great goals out of a whole lot of nothing. His ability to look up, see the shot that needs to be taken, and place it in the corner of the net with pinpoint accuracy is just out of this world.
Oftentimes you’ll see keepers just standing and staring at Asensio’s goals as they go into the back of the net, because they simply don’t expect him to be able to score from where he does. His ability to convert two goals from a measly .3 xG is testament to that skill.
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Also, it’s great to know we’ve got another player who can line up to take free kicks on the right-hand side of the box. Ronaldo’s prime territory is on the left. Bale tends to take FK’s when they are on the right, especially when they are far enough out from the box for him to blast from distance. But in terms of the spot that Asensio scored from, that was usually James Rodriguez territory. It’s good to know we’ve got another option to take FK’s from that area.
Another standout performance from a Real Madrid youngster came from Mateo Kovacic. Subbed on at half-time for Isco, who was experiencing some illness issues, Kovacic’s inclusion dramatically changed the second half for Madrid. Playing as a holding midfielder in front of Madrid’s beleaguered makeshift center-back pairing, Kovacic was immense in disrupting play and carrying the ball forward.
While Isco was great, he does not provide the same cover for the back line that Casemiro usually does, requiring Kroos and Modric to do more defensive work in the middle of the park. While that’s generally OK, because those players are fully capable of putting in a defensive shift, it ultimately limits what you can get out of them. One of the reasons Real Madrid were able to unleash the barrage of chances against Valencia late into the second half is that Kovacic freed up room for Modric and Kroos to do their magic further up the pitch.
Even though it was a disappointing draw, the performances of Kovacic and Asensio give me lots of reasons to be hopeful for the future.
Next: Zidane's A team and B team at Real Madrid