Real Madrid have an uphill task ahead of themselves, as they would look to overturn a one-goal deficit in the round of 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain, with the home leg scheduled to be played at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu on the 9th of March. But the club has to take on the Parisians without two of their main defensive players, Carlos Casemiro and Ferland Mendy, who are suspended for the second leg after accumulating three yellow cards each in the Champions League.
Both of them will be a huge miss in the all-important game, but the club has to field able replacements. While there is no real clarity in the case of the left-back position, Ancelotti might use Toni Kroos in place of the suspended Brazilian, in the second leg.
At the beginning of the season, it seemed like Antonio Blanco, who made a name for himself with few great performances, might be Casemiro’s backup. But after Eduardo Camavinga’s signing on the deadline day, Ancelotti saw the Frenchman as the second-choice defensive midfielder and used him as a pivot in the games where Casemiro was unavailable.
But Camavinga has performed well as a box-to-box midfielder when compared to his performances as a pivot. So it does make sense to use Kroos, a fantastic deep-lying playmaker, as the No. 6 against PSG. It does come with its own drawbacks, but given his experience and skill-set, Kroos can be a decent No. 6.
Imagining Kroos as our pivot against PSG, let us have a look at three formations that can accommodate the German as a No. 6, and also analyse who should be starting alongside Kroos. And this isn’t just restricted to the PSG game, as these systems can be used when Casemiro needs some rest or is suspended for a game.
1. 4-3-3 with Modric, Kroos and Fede Valverde forming a midfield three
4-3-3 has been Carlo Ancelotti’s preferred formation for most of the games (not every game, and we will get back to that in the next slide), with Toni Kroos, Casemiro and Luka Modric being the first-choice players for the system.
If the same system is used by Real Madrid against PSG, we can expect to see Fede Valverde enter the Starting XI. He might start as the RCM, with Luka Modric shifting towards the left and Toni Kroos lying at the base of the midfield three.
In every Clasico and even in the first leg against the Parisians, Casemiro was tasked with marking the legendary Leo Messi. Toni Kroos isn’t as strong and quick as Casemiro, and he can’t be himself if he has to keep thinking about Messi throughout the game. To make up for the Brazilian’s absence, we need a hard-working midfielder who can is a great ball winner and can also play well with the ball at his feet. And Fede Valverde just brings that to the table. Camavinga did have an edge over Valverde during earlier parts of the season, but things seem to have changed since Valverde’s goal against Barcelona this year.
The Uruguayan is primarily a ball-carrier, and he will definitely help the team help the ball progress the ball at a faster pace, either by passing or with short bursts of speed. Despite being a central midfielder, he often acts as a wide midfielder on the right, helping the right-back in defence. After the nightmarish first leg at Paris, Dani Carvajal would be very happy to have some support in the form of Fede in the second leg.
Each one of them is press-resistant, and it would be interesting to see how well they can bring the ball out of pressure, considering how poor Real Madrid were with the ball in the first leg. Valverde, Modric and Kroos did start together in some games under Zidane, in a 0-0 draw against Athletic Bilbao in December 2019, and in a 4-1 loss to Valencia in November 2020, where the Uruguayan was used as the No.6, and not Kroos. In this system, the positioning is different, and hopefully, the outcome can also be different.
2. 4-4-2 flat with Kroos, Modric, Valverde and Camavinga all starting
In the previous slide, I have mentioned that Don Carlo had used a 4-3-3 in almost every match, and not in every match. Some matches were exceptions, in which different formations were tried and tested. One such formation that was used is a 4-4-2 formation, with four central midfielders in the starting XI.
This formation was used against Espanyol in October 2021, and Real Madrid, unfortunately, lost the game 2-1. The midfield struggled against Espanyo’s disciplined setup, and eventually, Camavinga was subbed off at half-time. Well, this does not provide enough sample space to judge them as a midfield quartet, and it is still an interesting formation.
With the Blonde duo of Modric and Kroos forming a double pivot in the midfield four and Fede Valverde and Camavinga acting as wide midfielders, there is a sense of balance in this lineup. Full-backs will have proper support from the young midfielders in both attack and defence, and it can also help the team outnumber the opponent’s midfield. This can be a proper counter-attacking setup, with Valverde and Camavinga quick enough to burst down the wings. And Camavinga’s ability to operate in half-spaces will also help the team in possession.
This formation might remind you of the 4-4-2 that was successfully used by Zidane in some of the games of the 2017/18 season. But the difference is that it was a system that was built around the pace of Lucas Vazquez and Marco Asensio in transition, and relied heavily on their crossing skills, with two aerial targets present in the box, in Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema. This one is very different from that, though three players are common in both systems. This one is more possession-oriented and doesn’t involve a lot of wing-play or crosses.
But there are also some disadvantages with this formation. The team would have to sacrifice an attacker (mostly Marco Asensio) for the presence of another midfielder, in a game where they’re expected to be attack-minded. It is important to avoid conceding a goal, but at the same time, the team has to score two or more goals to win the game. And both of the wide midfielders aren’t really players with an eye for the goal. And to be defensively strong, the lines in a 4-4-2 must be tightly spaced, and I doubt if Real Madrid can actually execute that successfully.
It is a good choice nonetheless, but I doubt if it is the best choice. But with proper discipline, the team can definitely win big games with this combination.
3. 4-4-2 diamond, with Hazard as the No. 10
4-4-2 diamond isn’t any new formation for Real Madrid fans. Zinedine Zidane won two UEFA Champions League titles by relying on this formation, which involved the legendary KCM trio of Toni Kroos, Casemiro, Luka Modric, with Isco at the top of the diamond. Each of those players played at a different level those days, and we got to witness the best of Isco in that setup.
Isco has declined a lot in these four years, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t use this system. We can still use this system by using another No.10 like Eden Hazard. Hazard might not be a great presser like Isco was, but he can still bring a lot to the team with his positioning, link-up play, tricks and flicks. He isn’t really a player who focuses on scoring a lot of goals, but he does have an eye for the goal. Ancelotti seems to trust Isco more than Hazard in situations like these, but for the big games, the Belgian has to be the first-choice and he still has the quality to perform.
On paper, we haven’t used this formation yet, but on the field, this system was used a handful of times. Hazard formed a trio alongside Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr for some games, where people expected him to be a right-winger. But in reality, he was more of an attacker who played in the spaces occupied by a No. 10, acting as the bridge between the midfield and attack.
Ball progression would never be a problem in this system, and our performance in the final third will depend on Hazard’s activity. If used to perfection, we can expect free-flowing attacking football from the team. But this system has its own weaknesses, and the main weakness is the defence.
During 2016/17 and 2017/18, the midfield would often become narrow, allowing the full-backs to have acres of space in attack. They would also have the support from the free-roaming Isco, and the two strikers in the box. In defence, the team was exposed to counter-attacks, due to the overcommitment of the full-backs in the attack. But Casemiro would move towards the flank which is being attacked by the opponents, also forming an occasional back three with the centre-backs and helping the team in defence.
The main problem is that in this system, there is no Casemiro to cover for the full-backs. Kroos isn’t very good defensively, and even our full-backs are neither in great shape nor great form to do justice to this system. Valverde might help the right-flank, but he can’t do everything.
So, I don’t see this formation being a practical option at the moment, though it proved to be successful in the past. Another variation of this system would be to have Luka Modric at the tip of the diamond, and he does have the experience of doing so, having played as an attacking midfielder in a 3-0 win against Valencia in June 2020. But I don’t think that Ancelotti might at least consider this option.