Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid will be travelling to Manchester on Tuesday to face Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City in the first leg of the semifinals of the Champions League. Man City and Madrid have a recent history in the Champions League, with City knocking Madrid out most recently in the Round of 16 in the 2019/20 season. Ancelotti will certainly look to that result to help him make some key decisions heading into this tie. Here are the 3 biggest tactical decisions Ancelotti must make for the first leg:
Who should be Real Madrid’s right winger?
The least certain position in the XI all season has undoubtedly been the right-wing. Marco Asensio, Rodrygo, and Federico Valverde have all gotten significant minutes at RW. Despite scoring against Osasuna on Wednesday, Asensio appears to be the third option behind Valverde and Rodrygo at the moment, and for good reason.
Despite having a slow start to the season, Rodrygo has been impactful at the RW position as of late. After coming on against Chelsea in the second half of the second leg of the Quarterfinals of the Champions League, he scored the equalizer that sent the tie to extra time. He was also instrumental after coming on at halftime in the 3-2 comeback victory against Sevilla last Sunday as he scored one and assisted another. Rodrygo’s runs into the box and ability to take on defenders from the right side have made Madrid’s attack much more dangerous, well-rounded, and less reliant on Vinicius.
Valverde is an unorthodox option at RW, but he appears to be Ancelotti’s preferred option on the wing at the moment as he started both legs against Chelsea, and against Sevilla there. Valverde acts in some sense as a fourth midfielder, patrolling the entirety of the right-hand side of the pitch. He brings an intensity and directness that the KCM midfield lacks and has made Madrid much more able to cope with the physicality of top sides like Chelsea.
The downside to playing Valverde on the wing is that it makes the attack much more one dimensional, as everything must run through Vinicius on the left. In the first half of the first leg against Chelsea, this strategy worked well, as Vinicius got past Christensen all half long. But, when Reece James, someone with the physical tools to match Vinicius’ pace, was moved to right-centre-back at halftime of the first leg and stayed there for the remainder of the tie, Madrid’s attack was noticeable less dangerous.
The fitness of Kyle Walker will be key in Ancelotti’s decision. The Right Back picked up a knock against Atletico Madrid in the Quarterfinals and his status for the first leg is uncertain. If Walker is fit, Ancelotti may want to start Rodrygo. As Walker is a top defender with elite pace to match Vinicius on the left. Rodrygo would give the attack another outlet and ask more questions of City’s defense. However, if Walker is not fit, Ancelotti may start Valverde and not hesitate to rely on Vinicius to carry the offense. Valverde’s intensity could be key to winning the ball back against this elite City side.
What would Real Madrid’s midfield look like?
Casemiro is reportedly a doubt for the first leg against Man City. Even if Casemiro can play, Ancelotti may hesitate to trust him as we saw his limitations building from the back in full effect during that Round of 16 tie against City in 2020.
Madrid do not have a natural backup for Casemiro. Kroos and Camavinga are the most likely options to start in defensive midfield if Casemiro cannot play. Kroos started in his place in the second leg against PSG when Casemiro was suspended, and against Sevilla last weekend. Camavinga started there against Osasuna on Wednesday. Kroos offers more in the buildup than Camavinga, while Camavinga, despite his sometimes rash decision making and tendency to get booked, offers more defensively.
The midfield will also be affected by Ancelotti’s decision on who to play at RW, as Valverde could be deployed in midfield in Rodrygo starts on the wing. City press intensely and high up the pitch, so it will be important to start a midfield three that can best cope with the pressure.
I would recommend Carlo to go with Kroos-Camavinga-Modric in the midfield. Kroos will be freer to control the game playing as an 8 rather than a 6. Modric is obviously a must-start. And Camavinga adds some defensive ability in Casemiro’s absence. This midfield can play well under pressure and retain some possession against City’s press. This way Valverde can be played on the wing as well if Ancelotti wants to go that route.
Should Real Madrid risk playing out from the back against a team like City?
Ancelotti has to do a lot of thinking on how he wants to set up for this game. In many big games, to the dismay of some Madridistas, Ancelotti chose to play deep defensively and attack almost exclusively on the counter. He took this approach in the first leg against PSG, in the 2-1 win over Barcelona in the first Clasico of the season, and against Barcelona in the Supercup as well.
This type of setup may make the most sense against a dominant City side in Manchester. Madrid struggled mightily trying to build from the back against City in 2020, and this current Madrid side have shown they are vulnerable to costly mistakes while building up as well.
There is a risk to sitting back though. City are a dominant side, there is no guarantee that Madrid can hold them to 0 or even just 1 goal no matter how deep they defend. Madrid must pose some goal threat even away at Manchester. Allowing City to have all of the ball will eventually result in goals.
The personnel affects this decision as well. If Casemiro cannot play, Madrid may be more inclined to play out from the back since that is one of Casemiro’s weaknesses. Ancelotti may also be less comfortable defending in a low block without Casemiro there.
Want your voice heard? Join the The Real Champs team!
Regardless of how he chooses to set up, Ancelotti must have a clearly communicated well thoughtout plan if Madrid want to go into Manchester and beat the top team in England.