Real Madrid defeated Sevilla 4-1 at the last La Liga match of the season at the Santiago Bernabéu yesterday. In so doing, Madrid took a huge step forward towards winning the La Liga title.
Despite a string of recent successes in the Champions League, Real Madrid haven’t won the league in quite some time. In fact, Madrid haven’t won La Liga since Jose Mourinho’s 2012 side, their only title since 2008.
For a club that prides itself on being one of the best clubs in Europe, losing that many titles, most of them to their eternal rivals FC Barcelona, is simply unacceptable.
While all competitions are important, Zidane stated that winning the league was Madrid’s #1 priority for 2016-2017.
By defeating Sevilla, Real Madrid took one huge step forward in accomplishing this goal.
With one game-week left in the La Liga calendar, Real Madrid are tied with Barcelona at 87 points. Because of Madrid’s last-minute defeat in El Clasico this spring, a tie in points between Real Madrid and Barcelona would result in the title going to the Blaugranes, due to their advantage in the head-to-head record over two legs this season.
However, Los Blancos have a crucial game in hand. The postponed match against Celta Vigo will take place this upcoming Wednesday at the Balaidos. Then Madrid face off against Malaga on the last day of the season.
Assuming Barcelona win their match against 8th place Eibar on the last week, Madrid will need four points, a win and one draw, from their remaining matches to secure the La Liga title.
In defeating Sevilla, Madrid only managed to improve their chances of winning the league by 2%, according to Five Thirty Eight’s Soccer Power Index.
The mathematical probability reflected by Five Thirty Eight’s algorithm may not reflect just how big that victory was for Madrid’s title hopes.
By defeating Sevilla, Real Madrid overcame what was perhaps their biggest remaining obstacle to the La Liga title. Sevilla is solidly in 4th place, and for much of the season was one of the most widely praised teams in La Liga.
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Despite a strong showing in the Europa League, 13th place Celta Vigo are in really poor form. Their last victory came against an abysmal Granada side 9 matches ago.
Malaga on the other hand, are in much better form. Terrifyingly good form, from a Real Madrid perspective. After a shock victory over Barcelona on April 8th, Malaga have won four, drawn one, and lost one. Thus, while Malaga still sits at 11th place in the La Liga table, that match presents a major banana-skin (opportunity to slip-up) for Real Madrid.
Thus, by defeating Sevilla, Madrid did take one big step forward towards winning their first La Liga title since 2012. Nevertheless, they still have two giant steps remaining if they want to finally win the league over their Catalan rivals.