Real Madrid: Luka Jovic is better than everyone thinks

Real Madrid striker Luka Jovic may be involved in transfer rumors, but he actually isn’t coming off a bad season.

As much as analytics and technology have advanced for football fans, we often still see the same reductive reasoning applied to players. It’s goals, assists, and nothing else. So many young players fall victim to this kind of incomplete analysis, and Real Madrid striker Luka Jovic is among them.

Before joining Los Blancos for 60 million euros, Jovic was a star player for Eintracht Frankfurt in the 2018-2019 season. He made things happen in front of goal, elevating his game in the Europa League. Jovic’s athletic ability, link-up play, and lethal finishing made him one of the most exciting young forwards in the world, hence why Zinedine Zidane pushed to sign him.

The Serbian international didn’t get a real shot to shine at Real Madrid, as he played fewer than 500 minutes in La Liga. Basically, Real made a big investment up front in Jovic, and they didn’t even use him. That all came down to Karim Benzema playing so well at striker as La Liga’s MVP that Real couldn’t really afford to put him on the bench. He just did too much for the team as their leading scorer, leading assist provider, and “head of creative”.

So Jovic gets the criticism. The stat sheet reads two goals, one assist for Jovic in La Liga this season. That’s as many goal contributions as Lucas Vazquez and defenders Ferland Mendy and Raphael Varane. Nevermind that Jovic played 442 minutes, averaging less than 25 minutes per appearance. No, Jovic was a failure, because in his first season at Real Madrid as a young backup striker, he only scored twice.

Luka Jovic was quietly efficient for Real Madrid

Do you see how flawed that logic is? If we even take the most basic of adjustments, looking at goals and assists (minus penalties, since Jovic never had the benefit of taking any) per 90 minutes, the 22-year-old’s season suddenly looks a whole lot better.

Only two players (we won’t count Mariano Diaz since he played just once) had a better average of goals and assists per 90 minutes penalties. Marco Asensio and Karim Benzema. That’s it. Jovic averaged 0.63 goals and assists per 90, which means if he played 3,000 minutes in a season like most full-time starters, he would have recorded 21 goal contributions (about 14 goals and 7 assists). It’s not like he was getting lucky, either, since his xG and xA numbers were similar.

If we open the data to all competitions, Jovic had 0.42 goals and assists per 90 minutes in 882 minutes, since he only had one assist in the Spanish Supercup. Even so, if we decide to use the 0.42 figure and look at his contributions in a more realistic 1,600 minutes as a backup, he would have seven or eight contributions.

That’s not nearly as good of a return. But you know what’s interesting? I actually think that’s an underestimate of what Luka Jovic would have contributed. When Jovic played, it’s not like he would usually get a full half or a full 90 to get into the team and get into the rhythm of the game.

Real Madrid didn’t give Luka Jovic high-quality opportunities

Jovic would usually come into the match with Real Madrid either well in the lead and not trying as hard in the final 10 minutes, or he’d have 10-20 minutes against a team sitting in a low block, desperately defending. Basically, his minutes were a lot of him making something from nothing.

There is one MAJOR issue, though, with trying to extrapolate Jovic’s La Liga numbers. With 442 minutes played, his sample size is likewise small. The xG and xA numbers indicate he wasn’t getting lucky and was getting into good opportunities, and the eye test both backs up the quality of his goals and assists and his work off the ball. But this is a key disclaimer to mention.

There are ways Jovic can improve in 2020-2021. He can become more assertive on the pitch, for example. But as with players like Rodrygo Goes and Vinicius Junior, a lot of his need for improvement can be addressed by confidence and playing time. Unlike Vini and Rodrygo, Jovic didn’t get that playing time in 2019-2020, so it’s even harder to evaluate where he’s at.

But look at Jovic’s volleyed finish against Osasuna or his backheel assist for Casemiro against Sevilla to see the quality this man possesses. In flashes, he showed he can be a great No. 9 and a traditional No. 9 for Real Madrid. He’s earned a bigger role. The man who scored 27 goals between the Champions League and Bundesliga for Frankfurt has not disappeared.