Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: 3 keys to victory on Matchday 30

Real Madrid will face Barcelona on Saturday at 21:00 CET with a lot on the line. The winner of this Clasico could use the victory to win the whole league, as we saw late last season when Los Blancos beat Barça 2-0 and then went on to claim their 34th league title.

Both teams will like their chances of getting a positive result. Barcelona struggled against Real Valladolid but pulled out a tough win late, and they dominated a Real Sociedad side that Los Blancos struggled against. Meanwhile, Real Madrid bounced back from draws with La Real and Atletico Madrid, and they are undefeated in the last two months.

Los Merengues sit behind Barcelona in the table, but not by much. Here are three keys to victory for Zinedine Zidane’s men this Saturday.

Don’t get owned by Lionel Messi

There’s this idea that if you cover or support Real Madrid, you automatically have to discredit Lionel Messi. But that’s an idea concocted by the poisoned minds of a certain social media swamp where nuanced discussion is eschewed in favor of poorly constructed memes.

Here are the facts. Messi is the league’s leading scorer with 23 goals and won the Pichichi last year. He has as many assists as Toni Kroos (8). But he has not scored in each of the last three Clasicos, with Barcelona winning none of those contests.

So Messi, the best player in La Liga, has a point to prove at the Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano this Saturday. He has put his struggles of the first half of the season well behind him. He has 16 goals and 6 assists in his last 12 La Liga contests. That’s an average of 1.83 goal contributions per game.

Real Madrid must be on their highest “red alert” against Messi. We talk about game-changers on both sides, and there are a few. But there is no bigger game-changer in the sport than this man.

Real Madrid must control the midfield

There will be a wealth of great midfield talent on Matchday 30 when Barcelona come to the Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano. They will bring a veteran of El Clasico in Sergio Busquets, a bright star in Frenkie de Jong, and one of La Liga’s best young players in Pedri.

But Barça’s midfield, as talent as it is on paper, has rarely fared well against Zinedine Zidane’s Real Madrid. His midfield trio of Casemiro, Luka Modric, and Toni Kroos is the best in the world, bar none. And lest there was any doubt from the Premier League-only observers, Kroos and Co. shattered them with a commanding display at this very stadium on Tuesday night in the Champions League.

Kroos is in peak form and is blowing everyone else out of the water statistically when it comes to his passing. He is in a different league, even from the Barcelona guys.

But there are so many intriguing battles beyond Kroos vs. everyone. Can de Jong finally break the streak of getting owned by Fede Valverde if the latter starts? And if Valverde does not, is that the opening de Jong needs to finally assert his prodigious talents on the biggest head-to-head match in world sport?

How about Casemiro? He had eight tackles this week against Liverpool, per WhoScored.com, and is vital to Real’s plan against the superlative Messi.

No matter what, Real know that if they can control the match from the middle, they are in good shape. It is their best path to victory against all opponents, including La Blaugrana.

Real Madrid cannot make mental errors defensively

Although Real Madrid dominated Liverpool in the Champions League and made a statement with a 3-1 win, they were not flawless. The Reds scooped up an away goal in the second half, meaning they could advance if they win 2-0 at Anfield. And Real have to take the blame for surrendering that goal, as they made two defensive errors on the same play.

The first error was by Eder Militao, who was otherwise brilliant as an emergency starter. For some reason, he decided to position himself on the left foot of Diogo Jota, enabling the Portuguese “false nine” a free lane to pass the ball into the box with his right foot. It was a mistake typical of a young defender. Lucas Vazquez then erased any hope of Real avoiding a goal, as he played Mohamed Salah, the receiver of the pass, onside instead of following Nacho Fernandez’s lead.

These are the fine margins involved when defending, and Militao and Vazquez are quality footballers who often run afoul of these margins. Militao’s errors are forgivable since he is young. And Vazquez’s are forgivable because he is not a real defender.

That said, forgiveness has its limitations. Real Madrid’s decision-makers will not take defensive errors kindly – no matter who they are from and no matter the circumstances, on or off the ball – if these mistakes cost the team the title to their bitter rivals. Last year, we watched as individual errors undid Real in the 2019-2020 Champions League. Real cannot play against themselves on Saturday against a vengeful, dangerous Barcelona.