Real Madrid: The biggest misconception about rotations

Real Madrid fans are practically begging Carlo Ancelotti to make more rotations, specifically in the middle of the park. The team looked absolutely gassed on Wednesday night against Athletic Club, and that was a culmination of the minutes played by the key starters. And it won’t get easier this weekend at Real Sociedad, next week against Inter, and the following weekend in El Derbi.

The discussion around rotations focuses around a seemingly binary choice. Ancelotti must choose between keeping the team fresh and his most optimal lineup. The choice is start, for example, the midfield trio of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, and Casemiro or get Fede Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga involved in the XI. Potentially Antonio Blanco, too.

But is it really an “either or” situation? Is rotating really a question of sacrificing the most optimal lineup? Because it shouldn’t be, especially not at a club like Real Madrid.

Let us take a look at this midfield example, because this is truly where the root of the argument lies – in the veteran cog of the squad that faces the most weekly rigor physically.

It would be disingenuous to state that Fede or Camavinga are better than Modric and Kroos. I have seen people try to argue for Fede over Luka, but that is, quite frankly, disrespectful to Modric. And the comparison does not even need to be made.

Camavinga and Valverde are good enough to start for Real Madrid

However, it is more than fair to acknowledge what MUST be acknowledged. Camavinga and Valverde are both good enough to start matches for Real Madrid. We have seen them perform at the highest level against top opponents. Valverde’s heroics in El Derbi and El Clasico are well-documented. Camavinga’s performances against PSG as a 16 or 17-year-old at Rennes helped convince Los Blancos to sign him.

So Real Madrid should have no issues starting either player. If they cannot win matches in La Liga with players in the lineup who have excelled against the likes of Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Inter Milan, Liverpool, and PSG, then they did not lose because of those specific players. I hope we can accept this as a valid point. Valverde and Camavinga would not hold back the team; we are not talking about the team rotating in players like Mariano Diaz and Jesus Vallejo who have no business starting for Los Blancos in important matches.

The whole point of building a squad that can win championships is having a starting XI, a group of players who can start matches without a significant drop-off or change in win probability, and then a group of promising youngsters and veteran squad players for lower-stakes matches (or for emergencies, in the case of the likes of Marcelo).

Real should be able to rotate a few of their key players and still secure three points, even against clubs like Real Sociedad. Now, there are some rotations they cannot ever make, such as, for example, David Alaba for Vallejo, Benzema for Mariano, or Ferland Mendy for Marcelo. But we already knew that. That is not the situation Ancelotti faces.

He may fear dropping any points at this stage of the season, even when we are discussing teams not in title contention. But he should be more afraid of constantly starting the same veteran players, risking injury in the long run of the season and burnout. Paradoxically, Real’s chances of winning go down the more these players play, because their effectiveness decreases with nonstop starts. Factor in their importance to their national teams (with the exception of the now-retired Kroos), and you have a very delicate situation to bear in mind.

So don’t think of rotations as a bigger trade-off than they really are. In the situations Madridistas are thinking of, rotations are necessary and probably not harmful. The greater risk lies in the long-term harm to the squad – both in terms of veteran injury risk and youth morale – in not trusting the “backups” who have starting quality.