A realistic 2021-22 Champions League prediction for Real Madrid

Real Madrid are gearing up for the first leg of the Round of 16 of the 2021-2022 Champions League knockout stages on Feb. 15. Los Blancos will take on PSG in a battle with a lot at stake beyond just the match itself, and this will be a tough first matchup for the team with the most Champions League titles in history.

How far can we realistically expect Los Merengues to go in this year’s version of the Champions League? Is another Round of 16 exit against a tough, state-sponsored club, as in 2019-2020 against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City machine, possible? Or will Real survive until later in the competition, only to get knocked out by their own injuries and stagnant attacking play? Because that was the case last season in the semifinals against Chelsea.

Coming into the season, I don’t think many Madridistas expected the team to be this good. Vinicius Junior’s breakout has been THE story of the season, with Eder Militao’s breakout and David Alaba’s immediate excellence as the No. 4 being the secondary story. Combine these events with Karim Benzema’s career year, Thibaut Courtois being a wall, and continued stellar play from the midfield trio, and you can see why Real are first in LaLiga.

The Champions League is a different beast, though. Whereas the opponents in LaLiga are predictable (home and away against every team in the league, may the most consistent outfit win), taking home the UCL title is damn tough because you don’t know who you are going to get. You have to be prepared for any team, any type of opponent among the cream of the crop in Europe. And yes, you have to be prepared for any absence, whether it is injury, suspension, or, now COVID-19.

Real Madrid are only definitively worse than Bayern Munich this season

Over the past couple of seasons, Real Madrid have succeeded in the face of adversity, whether it was winning the title in 2019-2020, coming agonizingly close in 2020-2021 (with a Champions League semifinal appearance to boot), or being the champions of the “first half” of the 2021-2022 LaLiga campaign, Real have made no excuses.

I think another semifinals appearance in the Champions League should be the goal for Real Madrid. This team is good enough to win it all, yes, but so much has to go right for that to happen. They are not yet back to being the most dominant force in European football, though, if they get hot and are healthy, I might only take Bayern Munich over them in this competition.

But Manchester City and Liverpool are serious challenges in the Premier League. Chelsea’s playing style is annoying, however, that is exactly what makes them so dangerous in this competition. After all, they won it last year and embarrassed Real in the second leg.

Then there is PSG. Disappointments to many thus far, PSG are still finding ways to win in Ligue 1. And whereas Messi has not scored much in the league, he has been finding the back of the net in the Champions League, which was usually seen as a weaker competition for the right winger.

We’ll get to see how good Real Madrid truly are when they face PSG

PSG is a tough first battle, but it is one Real has to win. There is no asterisk given to soften the blow of a tumble out of the first round of the knockout stages, just as there was no grace given to the team by Madridistas in 2019-2020 for their second leg atrocity at City.

It is realistic to expect Real to beat PSG over two legs and to then get past an opponent in the quarterfinals. But it is so tough to beat three of the best teams in the world in a row. As we saw during the three-peat era, you need a special team for that. Real Madrid are great, but they are not yet special. (Not without Kylian Mbappe or a more stable right back situation.)

A Round of 16 exit is plausible. A quarterfinals exit is possible. And an exit before the semifinals is probable. If Real can make it to the final four, they should consider the campaign a success, though, of course, trophy-hungry Madridistas will never be satisfied without winning it all.

Real can win it all. They can be special. And the first round against PSG is a great opportunity for us to see if they are special. Until then, we have to be realistic about this team’s chances.