Kylian Mbappe is wreaking havoc for Real Madrid this season and is in the conversation to win the Ballon d'Or award in October. The French striker has never won the prestigous award and has best finish came in 2023 when he finished third.
With 34 goals in 28 games across competitions there's no doubt that Mbappe deserves to be in the running for the honor. Those goals have come in man-of-the-match performances and he could finish the season with a La Liga title or the Champions League trophy.
Former Los Blancos star Eden Hazard suggested that the 27-year-old needs to finish the season with a trophy to win the Ballon d'Or. That or become a two-time World Cup winner in France this summer.
Mbappe's Ballon d'Or probability revealed
Mbappe is among the frontrunners to win the Ballon d'Or even with Madrid trailing Barcelona in the La Liga title race and Alvaro Arbeloa's not top of the Champions League standings. He is in fact the favorite to claim the France Football award in Paris later this year.
Polymarket's probability list (via Madrid Xtra) sees Mbappe leading the pack with a 31% likelihood of winning the award. He is followed by Bayern Munich's Harry Kane who is given a 22% probability.
Barca starlet Lamine Yamal who came second last year is third favorite at 21% while Manchester City's Erling Haaland is fourth at 14%. These four are all playing crucial roles for their clubs in their respective ambitions of trophy success.
🚨 Kylian Mbappé is the current Ballon d’Or favourite. @PolymarketSport pic.twitter.com/KMTjpNNEGF
— Madrid Xtra (@MadridXtra) January 26, 2026
But Mbappe finished last year with the European Golden Boot after finding the back of the net 31 times. That could be crucial in his hopes to come out on top but the World Cup might also influence votes.
Lionel Messi beat Haaland to the Ballon d'Or in 2023 after captaining Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar in 2022. There were many who believed the City striker was more deserved of the award given he fired his side to a continental treble.
Mbappe has been world football's best player

Putting aside loyalties it's clear that Mbappe has been the best performer in world football over the past year. His goalscoring resume speaks volumes and so too does his consistency.
Kane is deservedly behind him in the probability rankings but it's difficult to judge a player playing in the Bundesliga where the competition isn't the same as La Liga. How France and England fare at the World Cup could be what seperates the duo.
Before that Mbappe will be eyeing his first ever Champions League trophy with Los Blancos all but through to the knockout rounds. If he were to lift the European title then it seems certain he'd also place the Ballon d'Or in his trophy cabinet later this year.
